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according to the joint chiefs of staff, how likely was japan to surrender unconditionally? very likely somewhat likely very unlikely we estimate that by late 1945 there will be available in the japanese home islands... over 2,000,000 men. the japanese will continue development of the “national volunteer army” and may form combat home defense units to supplement their regular armed forces. fanatical resistance will be offered in the defense of any of the home islands. the japanese would commit all ground forces they could sustain in defense... the japanese ruling groups are aware of the desperate military situation and are increasingly desirous of a compromise peace, but still find unconditional surrender
The text mentions that the Japanese ruling groups are aware of the desperate military situation and desire a compromise peace but still find unconditional surrender unacceptable. Fanatical resistance is expected in defense of the Home Islands. This indicates that unconditional surrender was very unlikely.
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very unlikely