Question

1. estimate subjective probabilities for each of the following events.

a) it will snow tomorrow.
b) the next school bell will ring on time.
c) canada will win at least one gold medal in the next olympic games.
d) the price of gas will rise at least once in the next week.

Explanation:

Step1: Define subjective probability

Subjective probability is based on personal judgment.

Step2: Analyze event a

Based on personal knowledge of local weather patterns, one might estimate. For example, if it's winter and there are clouds and cold temperatures, one might say 0.3 (30%).

Step3: Analyze event b

If the school has a good track - record of punctuality, one might estimate 0.9 (90%).

Step4: Analyze event c

Considering Canada's past performance in Olympics, its sports infrastructure and training, one might estimate 0.6 (60%).

Step5: Analyze event d

Based on knowledge of oil - market trends, geopolitical situation and local gas - price history, one might estimate 0.7 (70%).

Answer:

a) Estimated subjective probability: 0.3
b) Estimated subjective probability: 0.9
c) Estimated subjective probability: 0.6
d) Estimated subjective probability: 0.7